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    英國脫歐對溧陽生物質顆粒機行業的影響 Brexit and the UK biomass burn

    發布日期:2016-7-18 8:57:56  瀏覽量:
    英國長期以來一直是歐洲領先的木屑顆粒進口國,大部分來自中國溧陽地區,由于英國德拉克斯發電廠(Drax)對生物質需求。但前段時間,英國公投離開歐盟,掀起全球市場巨浪,各地的商品、政策和貿易問題出現。
    The UK has long been Europe’s leading wood pellet importer, driven by UK utility Drax’s appetite for biomass. But last week the UK voted to leave the EU, throwing up clouds of uncertainty for the market, raising questions around the implications for commodities, policy and trade.
     
    北美在向英國長期合同交付中占最大份額,但強勢美元兌歐元匯率已經離開了歐洲 - 特別是葡萄牙和波羅的海國家 - 在最近幾個月內滿足大部分英國的邊際和現貨需求。對于這些歐洲的生產商來說幸運的是,公投后的恐慌拖累歐元以及英鎊兌美元,所以可能價格競爭優勢會持續。
    North America accounts for the lion’s share of long-term contract deliveries to the UK, but a strong dollar against the euro had left Europe — especially Portugal and the Baltic states — supplying most of the UK’s marginal and spot demand in recent months. Luckily for those European producers, post-referendum jitters dragged down the euro as well as sterling against the dollar, so it looks likely that the status quo will continue for the time being in terms of price competitiveness.


    但英國會繼續作為歐洲生物質發電需求背后的驅動力?作為一個新興和補貼的行業,這取決于政府的政策。對可再生能源作出的承諾是英國在歐盟常設的義務,直到英國完全脫歐之前都要繼續履行,至少要兩年。但英國如何滿足這些承諾也掀起熱議。即使是最熱切的“脫歐”粉也認為,脫歐在短期內有資金成本。兩年前,通脹掛鉤執行價格可能使幾年前的生物質項目看起來像一個誘人蛋糕,能夠為政府節省開支,特別是從英國的電力價格下降以來,由于這些執行價格是被設置的。
    But will the UK continue as the driving force behind biomass demand for power generation in Europe? As a young and subsidised industry, that depends on government policy. The commitments made to renewable energy as part of the UK’s standing EU obligations cannot be rolled back until a UK exit is complete, at least two years down the line. But just how the UK meets those commitments is open to debate. Even the most ardent “leave” campaigners have accepted that a Brexit will cost money in the short term. Inflation-linked strike prices granted to biomass projects a couple of years ago could look like a tempting area for the government to make savings, particularly since UK power prices have fallen since those strike prices were set.
    英國共有三個項目設定了差價合約(CFD)補貼:德拉克斯發電站(Drax)645兆瓦的發電機組完全轉換、捷克EPH能源公司的420兆瓦Lynemouth電站煤轉換為生物質以及英國 MGT Power公司299兆瓦熱電聯產。
    A total of three UK projects are set up for contract for difference (CFD) subsidies: Drax’s full conversion of its 645MW unit 1, Czech energy firm EPH’s 420MW Lynemouth coal-to-biomass conversion and UK firm MGT Power’s 299MW Teeside CHP.
    01

    MGT公司已經通過與美國生物質生產商Enviva公司以英鎊計價的合同,達到了其木屑顆粒需求預期,避免了匯率風險。不過,這個項目遠遠落后于計劃,開始日期超出政府低碳合同提出來的最后期限,即差價合約。到目前為止,低碳合同允許擴展到項目時間,但將來政府希望最后期限更為嚴格。
    MGT has secured its expected wood pellet demand from US biomass producer Enviva in a sterling-denominated contract, avoiding currency risk. But the project is well behind schedule and a start date has been proposed that is beyond the deadline put forward by government-owned Low Carbon Contracts, which manages the CFD contracts. So far Low Carbon Contracts has allowed extensions to the project’s timeline, but a government looking to balance the books could encourage it to be stricter with deadlines in the future.
    02

    但Lynemouth電站已經步入正軌,并于12月獲得歐盟的援助審批。一半以上的預期140萬噸/年的需求已由與Enviva公司的合同保障 - 20%以英鎊計價,剩余部分以美元。但是,作為一個捷克公司,EPH公司將如何繼續投資于受歐盟規定限制的市場?
    But Lynemouth is on track, and gained EU state-aid approval in December. A contract for over half its expected 1.4mn t/yr demand has been secured with Enviva — 20pc denominated in sterling, with the remainder in dollars. But, as a Czech company, how keen will EPH be to continue to invest in a market untethered by EU regulations?
    03

    同時,德拉克斯發電站在等待歐盟國家對差價合約(CFD)援助調查的結果,早在2014年4月授予其發電機組轉換。無論脫歐與否,至少在未來兩年內,英國仍受到歐盟法律的約束,該調查的結果就好像會決定德拉克斯發電站是否能得到CFD補貼。但是,這次公投帶來的不確定性,在英國和布魯塞爾,其結果不太可能加快決策。
    Meanwhile Drax is still waiting for the outcome of an EU state aid investigation into the CFD it was granted for its unit 1 conversion back in April 2014. With the UK set to be bound by EU law for at least the next two years, it is likely that the results of that investigation will determine whether or not Drax is permitted to receive the CFD subsidy, whether Brexit proceeds or not. But the uncertainty thrown up by the referendum and its outcome, in the UK and in Brussels, is unlikely to have sped up the decision. 
    到2020年,這三個項目合計將增加約300萬噸/年的英國工業木屑顆粒需求。如果沒有他們,英國發電需求更可能停滯不前,德拉克斯發電站目前需要約680萬噸/年顆粒用于兩個發電機組完全轉換和85%生物質混燃發電機組。
    The three projects together would add almost 3mn t/yr of UK industrial wood pellet demand by 2020. Without them, UK generation demand is more likely to stagnate at approximately 6.8mn t/yr currently used by Drax in its two full unit conversions and 85pc biomass co-firing in unit 1.

    但即使這樣,也遠遠超過其他歐洲國家的新需求。歐洲需求最大的新的潛在市場是荷蘭,在荷蘭SDE+補貼預計將支持350萬噸/年木屑顆粒發電需求,從零提高該國目前的發電需求。但是,在英國,這些項目都依賴于政府政策 - 補貼這還沒有確定。
    But even that well outweighs the emerging demand in other European countries. The biggest new potential source of European demand is the Netherlands, where SDE+ subsidies are expected to support up to 3.5mn t/yr of wood pellet demand for power generation, raising the country’s current generation needs from zero. But, as in the UK, those projects are dependent on government policy and subsidies – which have not all been granted yet.
     
    英國即使不上其他項目,只要維持現有需求,英國工業生物質需求市場在可預見的未來將仍是歐洲大頭。除非對現有補貼削減,或者有新政策出現使得在英國負擔不起使用生物質。
    Even if none of the UK projects in the works were to come online, as long as the existing demand could be maintained — barring retrospective cuts to existing subsidies, or new policies that made biomass burn in the UK simply unaffordable — the UK market will remain the centre of industrial biomass demand in Europe for the foreseeable future. 

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